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Conflict and diplomacy. Polymarket Events the Cohort Traded, Page 4

As of Oct 11, 2026, 221 Polymarket events in Conflict and diplomacy have at least two of the 43 wallets tracked by Cohven on the same side. Sorted by the number of wallets, then by notional. Page 4 of 5.

EventWalletsNotionalOutcomesResolved
US strikes Nigeria by...?5 / 43$9,9133Dec 26, 2025
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?5 / 43$7,9271Jan 17, 2026
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 22?5 / 43$4,9975Aug 22, 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?4 / 43$171,3709
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?4 / 43$113,5321Jan 1, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?4 / 43$90,8621Sep 23, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?4 / 43$72,2661Mar 1, 2026
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?4 / 43$57,6246Jun 1, 2026
India-Pakistan declare war before June?4 / 43$55,4461Jun 1, 2025
Iran invades Kuwait by...?4 / 43$47,1072Sep 3, 2026
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?4 / 43$34,7732Jul 1, 2026
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March?4 / 43$33,9431Apr 1, 2025
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?4 / 43$29,5101Apr 1, 2026
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...?4 / 43$26,5932Jul 1, 2026
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?4 / 43$23,6953
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May?4 / 43$21,6682May 1, 2025
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?4 / 43$19,2405Aug 7, 2026
Israel strikes Iran before 2026?4 / 43$15,6321Jan 1, 2026
US x Iran ceasefire before July? 4 / 43$14,8201Jul 1, 2025
5kt meteor strike in 2025?4 / 43$13,4671Jan 1, 2026
US next strikes Iran on...?4 / 43$12,9264Mar 4, 2026
Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31?4 / 43$11,1991Jan 1, 2026
US/Israel military action on Fordow nuclear facility by...?4 / 43$7,3602Apr 1, 2026
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days?4 / 43$6,8602Jan 18, 2025
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?4 / 43$5,6222Feb 1, 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?3 / 43$348,7301Jul 1, 2026
Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024?3 / 43$208,7901Jan 1, 2025
How Many Different Countries Will the US Strike in February3 / 43$139,5541Mar 6, 2026
US strikes Iraq by...?3 / 43$136,6252Mar 12, 2026
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?3 / 43$115,1711Jun 1, 2026
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?3 / 43$100,8503Jun 2, 2026
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?3 / 43$74,6872Jul 1, 2026
Next Country US Strikes3 / 43$72,0266Feb 5, 2026
Israel strikes Iran by October 31?3 / 43$48,3181Nov 1, 2025
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 20?3 / 43$41,2901Aug 4, 2026
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by March 31?3 / 43$36,5141Apr 1, 2026
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?3 / 43$30,9441
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?3 / 43$19,1654Oct 6, 2026
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?3 / 43$18,9091Jul 12, 2025
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?3 / 43$16,7592Jan 1, 2025
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 14?3 / 43$10,4952Feb 14, 2026
Will US leave NATO by June 30?3 / 43$9,1821Jul 1, 2025
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled before April?3 / 43$9,0051Mar 18, 2025
Will Russia invade another country by...?3 / 43$8,9281
Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?3 / 43$8,5841Oct 1, 2024
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31?3 / 43$7,4822Apr 1, 2025
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June?3 / 43$6,2771Jun 1, 2025
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)3 / 43$6,1823Mar 31, 2026
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?3 / 43$5,6801Apr 16, 2026
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 28?3 / 43$5,1571Feb 28, 2026

Cohven has no affiliation with Polymarket. Positions come from public on-chain activity of the tracked addresses. Nothing on this page is financial advice.