Conflict and diplomacy. Polymarket Events the Cohort Traded, Page 3

As of Oct 10, 2026, 221 Polymarket events in Conflict and diplomacy have at least two of the 43 wallets tracked by Cohven on the same side. Sorted by the number of wallets, then by notional. Page 3 of 5.

Event	Wallets	Notional	Outcomes	Resolved
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?	7 / 43	$29,624	2	Oct 9, 2025
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?	7 / 43	$25,520	5	Oct 1, 2026
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?	7 / 43	$15,945	2	Apr 11, 2026
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by...?	7 / 43	$4,171	3	Dec 27, 2025
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?	6 / 43	$523,995	1	Jul 17, 2026
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?	6 / 43	$374,232	2	Jan 18, 2025
Israel announces ceasefire by January 16?	6 / 43	$310,030	2	Jan 20, 2025
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?	6 / 43	$289,223	2	Dec 21, 2024
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?	6 / 43	$171,324	3	May 14, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?	6 / 43	$134,086	2	Jul 1, 2025
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday?	6 / 43	$129,535	2	Mar 22, 2025
Will India invade Pakistan before July?	6 / 43	$95,392	2	Jul 1, 2025
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?	6 / 43	$85,508	3	Jul 1, 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?	6 / 43	$76,500	5	Aug 30, 2026
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)	6 / 43	$68,643	5	Sep 18, 2026
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3?	6 / 43	$68,400	1	Oct 4, 2025
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?	6 / 43	$59,190	2	Aug 16, 2025
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?	6 / 43	$51,586	2	Jul 1, 2025
US strike on Mexico by...?	6 / 43	$44,791	6
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by...?	6 / 43	$42,688	6	Oct 13, 2025
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	6 / 43	$38,415	2	Apr 1, 2026
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025?	6 / 43	$33,967	1	Jan 1, 2026
Will another country take military action against Iran by...?	6 / 43	$28,873	2	Apr 1, 2026
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by...?	6 / 43	$19,707	2	Jan 8, 2026
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	6 / 43	$17,767	2	Jun 15, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by...?	6 / 43	$15,172	6	Feb 28, 2026
US next strikes Iran on...?	6 / 43	$15,089	4	Feb 3, 2026
US-Iran nuclear deal before August?	6 / 43	$12,024	2	Aug 1, 2025
Another US strike on Venezuela by...?	6 / 43	$9,764	4	Jun 13, 2026
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	6 / 43	$4,140	2	Feb 28, 2026
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August?	6 / 43	$4,118	2	Aug 1, 2025
US strikes Iraq by February 28?	5 / 43	$1,022,610	2	Mar 6, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?	5 / 43	$243,069	2	Jun 1, 2025
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?	5 / 43	$205,535	1	Jan 20, 2025
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?	5 / 43	$105,186	1	Jan 1, 2025
Israel announces ceasefire by January 17?	5 / 43	$104,203	1	Jan 20, 2025
Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?	5 / 43	$93,975	3
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?	5 / 43	$70,040	4	May 12, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15?	5 / 43	$55,272	1	Aug 16, 2025
Will Trump sanction Russia before March?	5 / 43	$49,757	1	Mar 1, 2025
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31?	5 / 43	$47,256	1	Nov 1, 2025
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?	5 / 43	$44,644	2	Jun 1, 2025
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?	5 / 43	$37,057	2	Jul 5, 2025
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?	5 / 43	$34,068	1	Jan 1, 2025
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?	5 / 43	$31,957	7
Iran strike on Qatar today?	5 / 43	$30,766	2	Jun 24, 2025
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May?	5 / 43	$27,606	1	Mar 25, 2025
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?	5 / 43	$23,030	4	May 1, 2026
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?	5 / 43	$19,811	2	Jan 1, 2026
U.S. refuels Israeli jets for strikes on Iran before July?	5 / 43	$14,920	1	Jul 5, 2025

Cohven has no affiliation with Polymarket. Positions come from public on-chain activity of the tracked addresses. Nothing on this page is financial advice.