Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by ___? Polymarket Whale Tracker: Cohort Consensus, Position Weight and the Gap
As of Dec 30, 2025, 12 of 43 tracked Polymarket wallets tracked by Cohven held a side in Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by ___?, with $796,420 of notional across 2 outcomes and 327 fills over 21 trading days. Cohven rebuilds every position from public on-chain activity on Polygon. The event resolved on Jan 1, 2026, and the cohort booked +$15,125 in verified P&L.
Updated Dec 30, 2025
Where the cohort filled, day by day
Every dot marks one day of cohort trading on that outcome. Cohven prices the dot at the volume weighted average of the fills for the day and sizes it by share volume. The dots come from real trades on the Polymarket order book. The dotted line only joins them, so treat the space between two dots as unknown. The square marks the resolution and the payout.
Every outcome the cohort held
Cohven reads shares, average entry price and realised P&L straight from the chain for each tracked wallet, then adds them up across the cohort. Holders counts the wallets standing on that side.
| Market | Side | Holders | Average entry | Notional | Realised | Resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | No | 12 / 43 | 97¢ | $795,479 | +$4,502 | on side |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | Yes | 4 / 43 | 4¢ | $941 | +$10,623 | against |
Wallets in this event
Every tracked wallet that held a side here, its average entry and realised result. Each row opens the wallet profile and its trades in this event.
| Wallet | Entry | Notional | Realised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| qmarktea20xed10…d2e5 | 99¢ | $575,449 | +$3,501 | Trades in this event |
| tourists0xc6dd…4b9f | 89¢ | $121,891 | +$6,756 | Trades in this event |
| Eatpraylove0xc021…1fa8 | 82¢ | $30,891 | +$1,840 | Trades in this event |
| occasionalAwareness0x8a4c…532b | 57¢ | $30,789 | +$2,305 | Trades in this event |
| allenzzz0xe749…f771 | 96¢ | $11,120 | −$62 | Trades in this event |
| tsybka0xd5cc…dea4 | 82¢ | $8,970 | +$93 | Trades in this event |
| Jest550xd34b…0004 | 93¢ | $6,738 | +$255 | Trades in this event |
| dzsibenaja0x59a5…afc8 | 90¢ | $3,602 | +$398 | Trades in this event |
| Desy-17251921852340xb4f2…7862 | 100¢ | $2,994 | +$6 | Trades in this event |
| pup10x54b5…4b31 | 91¢ | $2,741 | +$40 | Trades in this event |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | 92¢ | $920 | −$17 | Trades in this event |
| tja0xe1b3…1426 | 90¢ | $315 | +$12 | Trades in this event |
What Cohven does
Cohven works as a Polymarket whale tracker. It watches a cohort of consistently tracked addresses, reads their public activity on Polygon, and rebuilds equity, entry price, position weight and verified P&L for every wallet. You see the positions, you place your own orders. Cohven never touches your funds and never holds a key, so nothing here behaves like a copy trading bot.
Why a cohort beats one whale
A single tracked wallet can win on luck. Any Polymarket whale tracker that mirrors one address hands you that wallet's variance along with its edge. Cohven waits for agreement instead. When several tracked wallets stand on the same YES or NO outcome, that agreement reaches quorum and the position counts as a consensus trade. Smart money on Polymarket looks obvious in hindsight. Quorum is how you spot it while the market still trades.
Position weight, not raw dollars
A $20,000 position means one thing inside a $700,000 wallet and something else inside a $50,000 wallet. Cohven measures every position as a share of its owner's equity, and that share is the position weight. That number lets Cohven resize any cohort trade to your account, in shares and in dollars, whatever your bankroll.
The Gap
The Gap lists the difference between your portfolio and the cohort, row by row. It shows which consensus positions you already hold, which you hold too small, and which you miss completely. Cohven prices each row against the live order book, so the number you read matches the number you would pay.
How Cohven verifies the numbers
Every figure on this page comes from public Polymarket activity. Cohven reads trades, splits, merges, redemptions and rewards for each tracked address on Polygon, then rebuilds the position from scratch instead of trusting a reported total. The UMA oracle resolves the market and the payout settles in USDC. You can check any row against the chain yourself.
Questions traders ask
+Can you see other people's positions on Polymarket?
Yes. Polymarket settles on Polygon and every trade lands on a public ledger, so anyone can read the positions of any address. Cohven does that reading at scale for a curated cohort and turns it into entry price, implied probability, position weight and verified P&L.
+Does copy trading on Polymarket work?
Copying one wallet inherits the variance of that wallet. A single whale can run a losing streak for months while the long run ROI still looks strong. Cohven answers a narrower question. It shows where several tracked wallets agree, and agreement carries a better base rate than any single address.
+Is it legal to track Polymarket wallets?
Reading a public blockchain breaks no rule. Cohven publishes no private data, asks for no Polymarket credentials and requests no permission over your account.
+How does Cohven differ from a Polymarket copy trading bot?
A copy bot needs your keys and fires orders on your behalf. Cohven stays read-only. It shows the cohort, the quorum and the Gap, then you decide what to place and at what size.
+Does Cohven touch my funds?
No. Cohven is non-custodial. It holds no keys, no balance and no order permissions, and it never routes a trade for you.
+What counts as a Polymarket whale?
Traders use the word for any address carrying a large notional. Cohven cares less about size and more about a verified record, so the leaderboard ranks the cohort by on-chain P&L and hit rate rather than by balance alone.
+How do I find Polymarket wallets with a public, verifiable record?
You can read the Polymarket leaderboard and check each address on-chain by hand. Cohven skips that work. It maintains the cohort, refreshes P&L daily and ranks the best Polymarket traders by verified result.
+How much does Cohven cost?
Every new account starts with seven days of the full cohort free, no card. After that you have 60 hours to pick a plan from $29 a month, paid in USDC.
Other events the cohort traded
Each page rebuilds the same view from public Polymarket activity.
See the cohort live
The cohort trades every day. Open the tracker to watch consensus form, read the Gap against your own portfolio and size each position to your account.
Show me the cohortExplore Cohven
Cohven has no affiliation with Polymarket. Positions come from public on-chain activity of the tracked addresses. Nothing on this page is financial advice.