Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Polymarket Whale Tracker: Cohort Entry, Holders and Result
As of Oct 4, 2026, 6 of 43 tracked Polymarket wallets tracked by Cohven held a side in “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?”, one of the markets inside Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place, with $90,719 of notional over 189 fills. The market resolved Yes on Oct 5, 2026, and the cohort booked −$31,582 in verified P&L on it.
Updated Oct 4, 2026
Where the cohort filled, day by day
Every dot is one day of cohort trading on a side of this market, priced at the volume-weighted average of the fills for the day and sized by share volume. The dotted line only joins the dots.
Each side of the market
Holders counts the tracked wallets standing on that side. Entry is the cost-weighted average price they paid.
| Side | Holders | Average entry | Notional | Realised | Resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 3 / 43 | 82¢ | $47,200 | −$41,604 | against |
| Yes | 5 / 43 | 77¢ | $43,519 | +$10,022 | on side |
Wallets on this market
Every tracked wallet on this market with its side, entry and result. Each row opens the wallet profile and its trades in the whole event.
| Wallet | Side | Average entry | Notional | Realised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| scottilicious0x000d…758e | No | 82¢ | $37,099 | −$37,099 | Trades in this event |
| mr.ozi0x614d…1546 | Yes | 79¢ | $34,182 | +$8,967 | Trades in this event |
| Ryxon210x3dca…3c13 | No | 91¢ | $6,296 | −$1,719 | Trades in this event |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 73¢ | $3,806 | −$2,787 | Trades in this event |
| pup10x54b5…4b31 | Yes | 45¢ | $773 | +$2 | Trades in this event |
| paddaa0x60a9…5a71 | Yes | 63¢ | $67 | +$39 | Trades in this event |
Questions traders ask
+What is the difference between a market and an event on Polymarket?
An event groups the markets about one question, for example every candidate in an election. A market is one of them with its own YES and NO sides. Cohven shows the cohort on both levels: this page is the market, the event page adds the other markets.
+Why does the cohort entry differ from the current price?
The tracked wallets bought earlier, often when the outcome was priced lower. The gap between their average entry and the book price is what a late follower would pay for the same position.
+Can I see which wallet bought first?
Yes. Every wallet in the table opens its trades in this event day by day, and the fills chart marks how many wallets were active on each day.
+Is this a recommendation?
No. Cohven shows what verified tracked wallets hold and what they paid. Whether to follow, and at what size, is a decision the application helps you size to your own account.
See the cohort live
The cohort trades every day. Open the tracker to watch consensus form, read the Gap against your own portfolio and size each position to your account.
Show me the cohortCohven has no affiliation with Polymarket. Positions come from public on-chain activity of the tracked addresses. Nothing on this page is financial advice.